15 Apr 2026
Higher energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East are set to make the median working-age British household £480 worse off this year, according to the Resolution Foundation.
The think tank based its estimates on market-forecasts for the rise in energy prices consistent with market pricing after the announcement of a ceasefire.
For families with above average income, rising energy prices will likely tip living standards growth into negative territory, says the Foundation.
The typical household, previously on track for 0.9% growth, is now set to see its income fall by 0.6% – a difference of £480 – over the course of the current financial year.
It says that average income growth for the poorest fifth this year is now set to be just 1.2%, down from 2.8% before the conflict.
James Smith, Chief Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: 'Despite hopes for a sustained peace, the path of this conflict remains uncertain and energy prices remain well above pre-war levels, meaning many households face a decline in their purchasing power this year.
'This squeeze will run right through the income distribution. Lower-income households will still see some income growth thanks to a long-awaited rise in real benefit levels, but inflation will likely knock more than a percentage point off what they stood to gain.
'For those in the middle and towards the top of the income distribution, even the thin growth they had been expecting has tipped into negative territory.'